Player Prediction Accuracy

SeasonPeriod

Week 9 results

155 / 160 player-games have graded stats · 646 graded stat observations · 19 ungraded.

15 stored game records · 15 scheduled games · 0 games without a saved snapshot · 589 stored players without numerical projections.

Passing yards

46.2

MAE · yards

64.0%

Within ±50 yards

Sample 25 · within 16/25 · ungraded 0

Rushing yards

11.5

MAE · yards

79.6%

Within ±20 yards

Sample 103 · within 82/103 · ungraded 2

Receiving yards

20.4

MAE · yards

62.3%

Within ±20 yards

Sample 130 · within 81/130 · ungraded 5

Receptions

1.4

MAE · catches

76.2%

Within ±2 catches

Sample 130 · within 99/130 · ungraded 5

Passing TDs

0.8

MAE · TDs

68.0%

Within ±1 TDs

Sample 25 · within 17/25 · ungraded 0

Rushing TDs

0.2

MAE · TDs

97.1%

Within ±1 TDs

Sample 103 · within 100/103 · ungraded 2

Receiving TDs

0.3

MAE · TDs

98.5%

Within ±1 TDs

Sample 130 · within 128/130 · ungraded 5

Direction vs PLPIQ projection

Hypothetical comparison only: whether the final stat finished over, under or equal to the saved PLPIQ projection. These are not sportsbook-line wagers, and no sportsbook outcome is reported without a verified contemporaneous line and pregame selection.

204

Over

358

Under

Equal

646

Graded

Stat	Over	Under	Equal	n
Passing yards	11	14	0	25
Rushing yards	43	59	1	103
Receiving yards	53	77	0	130
Receptions	49	75	6	130
Passing TDs	11	13	1	25
Rushing TDs	13	45	45	103
Receiving TDs	24	75	31	130

By game — every graded locked player/stat projection, not selected examples
Game	Over	Under	Equal	Graded	Ungraded
Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL	7	26	6	39	6
Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL	15	23	5	43	0
Wk 9 · NYJ @ KC	15	25	5	45	0
Wk 9 · DAL @ IND	15	24	5	44	0
Wk 9 · DET @ MIA	7	33	7	47	0
Wk 9 · CLE @ NO	12	22	5	39	5
Wk 9 · NYG @ PHI	13	15	5	33	0
Wk 9 · LAR @ WSH	11	27	2	40	0
Wk 9 · DEN @ CAR	22	21	5	48	0
Wk 9 · HOU @ LAC	15	27	8	50	3
Wk 9 · ARI @ SEA	12	20	7	39	5
Wk 9 · GB @ NE	19	17	5	41	0
Wk 9 · LV @ SF	12	25	5	42	0
Wk 9 · TB @ CHI	20	23	7	50	0
Wk 9 · BUF @ MIN	9	30	7	46	0

Original vs final

Jakobi MeyersOver proj.
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
45.9
Final
65.0
Error
+19.1
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Jakobi MeyersOver proj.
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
3.5
Final
4.0
Error
+0.5
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Jakobi MeyersUnder proj.
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.3
Final
0.0
Error
-0.3
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Jakobi MeyersUnder proj.
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing yards
Original
0.4
Final
0.0
Error
-0.4
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Jakobi MeyersEqual
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing TDs
Original
0.0
Final
0.0
Error
0.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Trevor LawrenceOver proj.
JAX · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Passing yards
Original
240.2
Final
242.0
Error
+1.8
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Trevor LawrenceUnder proj.
JAX · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Passing TDs
Original
2.3
Final
1.0
Error
-1.3
Outside tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Trevor LawrenceUnder proj.
JAX · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing yards
Original
13.6
Final
-1.0
Error
-14.6
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Trevor LawrenceUnder proj.
JAX · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing TDs
Original
0.1
Final
0.0
Error
-0.1
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Parker WashingtonOver proj.
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
60.5
Final
61.0
Error
+0.5
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Parker WashingtonUnder proj.
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
3.9
Final
2.0
Error
-1.9
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Parker WashingtonOver proj.
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.5
Final
1.0
Error
+0.5
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Parker WashingtonUnder proj.
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing yards
Original
1.4
Final
0.0
Error
-1.4
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Parker WashingtonEqual
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing TDs
Original
0.0
Final
0.0
Error
0.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Brenton StrangeUnder proj.
JAX · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
47.1
Final
22.0
Error
-25.1
Outside tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Brenton StrangeUnder proj.
JAX · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
4.0
Final
2.0
Error
-2.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Brenton StrangeUnder proj.
JAX · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.2
Final
0.0
Error
-0.2
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Brian Thomas Jr.—
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
24.2
Final
—
Error
—
Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Brian Thomas Jr.—
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
1.9
Final
—
Error
—
Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Brian Thomas Jr.—
JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.3
Final
—
Error
—
Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Derrick HenryUnder proj.
BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing yards
Original
82.0
Final
57.0
Error
-25.0
Outside tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Derrick HenryUnder proj.
BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing TDs
Original
1.0
Final
0.0
Error
-1.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Derrick HenryUnder proj.
BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
9.3
Final
0.0
Error
-9.3
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Derrick HenryUnder proj.
BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
1.4
Final
0.0
Error
-1.4
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Derrick HenryUnder proj.
BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.1
Final
0.0
Error
-0.1
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Mark AndrewsUnder proj.
BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
26.8
Final
19.0
Error
-7.8
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Mark AndrewsUnder proj.
BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
3.5
Final
2.0
Error
-1.5
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Mark AndrewsUnder proj.
BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.2
Final
0.0
Error
-0.2
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Mark AndrewsUnder proj.
BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing yards
Original
0.6
Final
0.0
Error
-0.6
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Mark AndrewsEqual
BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing TDs
Original
0.0
Final
0.0
Error
0.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Rashod BatemanUnder proj.
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
32.2
Final
6.0
Error
-26.2
Outside tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Rashod BatemanUnder proj.
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
2.2
Final
1.0
Error
-1.2
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Rashod BatemanUnder proj.
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.1
Final
0.0
Error
-0.1
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Zay FlowersUnder proj.
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
83.4
Final
6.0
Error
-77.4
Outside tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Zay FlowersUnder proj.
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
5.6
Final
3.0
Error
-2.6
Outside tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Zay FlowersUnder proj.
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.4
Final
0.0
Error
-0.4
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Zay FlowersOver proj.
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing yards
Original
4.6
Final
17.0
Error
+12.4
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Zay FlowersEqual
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing TDs
Original
0.0
Final
0.0
Error
0.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Ja'Kobi Lane—
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving yards
Original
22.3
Final
—
Error
—
Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Ja'Kobi Lane—
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receptions
Original
2.3
Final
—
Error
—
Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Ja'Kobi Lane—
BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.0
Final
—
Error
—
Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Joe FagnanoUnder proj.
BAL · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Passing yards
Original
91.0
Final
60.0
Error
-31.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Joe FagnanoEqual
BAL · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Passing TDs
Original
0.0
Final
0.0
Error
0.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Joe FagnanoOver proj.
BAL · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing yards
Original
3.0
Final
13.0
Error
+10.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Joe FagnanoEqual
BAL · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL
Rushing TDs
Original
0.0
Final
0.0
Error
0.0
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Mike GesickiUnder proj.
CIN · TE · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL
Receiving yards
Original
36.5
Final
11.0
Error
-25.5
Outside tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Mike GesickiUnder proj.
CIN · TE · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL
Receptions
Original
2.7
Final
2.0
Error
-0.7
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Mike GesickiUnder proj.
CIN · TE · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL
Receiving TDs
Original
0.8
Final
0.0
Error
-0.8
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Tee HigginsUnder proj.
CIN · WR · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL
Receiving yards
Original
93.2
Final
32.0
Error
-61.2
Outside tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)
Tee HigginsUnder proj.
CIN · WR · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL
Receptions
Original
5.7
Final
5.0
Error
-0.7
Within tolerance
pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)

Locked original projections, final actuals and signed errors by player and stat
Player / stat	Original	Final	Error	Direction	Result
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	45.9	65.0	+19.1	Over proj.	Within tolerance
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	3.5	4.0	+0.5	Over proj.	Within tolerance
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.3	0.0	-0.3	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)	0.4	0.0	-0.4	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)	0.0	0.0	0.0	Equal	Within tolerance
Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Passing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	240.2	242.0	+1.8	Over proj.	Within tolerance
Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Passing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	2.3	1.0	-1.3	Under proj.	Outside tolerance
Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	13.6	-1.0	-14.6	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.1	0.0	-0.1	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Parker Washington JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	60.5	61.0	+0.5	Over proj.	Within tolerance
Parker Washington JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	3.9	2.0	-1.9	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Parker Washington JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.5	1.0	+0.5	Over proj.	Within tolerance
Parker Washington JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)	1.4	0.0	-1.4	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Parker Washington JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)	0.0	0.0	0.0	Equal	Within tolerance
Brenton Strange JAX · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	47.1	22.0	-25.1	Under proj.	Outside tolerance
Brenton Strange JAX · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	4.0	2.0	-2.0	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Brenton Strange JAX · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.2	0.0	-0.2	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded	24.2	—	—	—	Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded	1.9	—	—	—	Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded	0.3	—	—	—	Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
Derrick Henry BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	82.0	57.0	-25.0	Under proj.	Outside tolerance
Derrick Henry BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	1.0	0.0	-1.0	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Derrick Henry BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)	9.3	0.0	-9.3	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Derrick Henry BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)	1.4	0.0	-1.4	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Derrick Henry BAL · RB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)	0.1	0.0	-0.1	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Mark Andrews BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	26.8	19.0	-7.8	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Mark Andrews BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	3.5	2.0	-1.5	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Mark Andrews BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.2	0.0	-0.2	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Mark Andrews BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.6	0.0	-0.6	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Mark Andrews BAL · TE · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.0	0.0	0.0	Equal	Within tolerance
Rashod Bateman BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	32.2	6.0	-26.2	Under proj.	Outside tolerance
Rashod Bateman BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	2.2	1.0	-1.2	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Rashod Bateman BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.1	0.0	-0.1	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Zay Flowers BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	83.4	6.0	-77.4	Under proj.	Outside tolerance
Zay Flowers BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	5.6	3.0	-2.6	Under proj.	Outside tolerance
Zay Flowers BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.4	0.0	-0.4	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Zay Flowers BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	4.6	17.0	+12.4	Over proj.	Within tolerance
Zay Flowers BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.0	0.0	0.0	Equal	Within tolerance
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded	22.3	—	—	—	Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded	2.3	—	—	—	Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL · WR · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded	0.0	—	—	—	Missing matched actual / DNP unverified
Joe Fagnano BAL · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Passing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	91.0	60.0	-31.0	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Joe Fagnano BAL · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Passing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.0	0.0	0.0	Equal	Within tolerance
Joe Fagnano BAL · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	3.0	13.0	+10.0	Over proj.	Within tolerance
Joe Fagnano BAL · QB · Wk 9 · JAX @ BAL Rushing TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.0	0.0	0.0	Equal	Within tolerance
Mike Gesicki CIN · TE · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	36.5	11.0	-25.5	Under proj.	Outside tolerance
Mike Gesicki CIN · TE · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	2.7	2.0	-0.7	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Mike Gesicki CIN · TE · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL Receiving TDs pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	0.8	0.0	-0.8	Under proj.	Within tolerance
Tee Higgins CIN · WR · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL Receiving yards pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	93.2	32.0	-61.2	Under proj.	Outside tolerance
Tee Higgins CIN · WR · Wk 9 · CIN @ ATL Receptions pp-1.1.0-full-game · pregame EXPECTED · played (box score)	5.7	5.0	-0.7	Under proj.	Within tolerance

665 observations · page 1

Not in primary view (audit)

Original locked projections for players without a pregame primary role (injury designation, no recent stats, backup QB or low projected usage). Kept unchanged for audit, excluded from every total above. Chosen from saved pregame data only, never from final results.

31 players · 134 stat projections

Bhayshul Tuten JAX · RB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing yards: original 59.2 · final 29.0 · played (box score)
Bhayshul Tuten JAX · RB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing TDs: original 0.4 · final 1.0 · played (box score)
Bhayshul Tuten JAX · RB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 21.3 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Bhayshul Tuten JAX · RB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 1.8 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Bhayshul Tuten JAX · RB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.4 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Samaje Perine CIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 21.2 · final 43.0 · played (box score)
Samaje Perine CIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.2 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Samaje Perine CIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 9.2 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Samaje Perine CIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.2 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Samaje Perine CIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.1 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 8.2 · final 5.0 · played (box score)
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.3 · final 1.0 · played (box score)
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 0.4 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Cyrus Allen KC · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 13.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Cyrus Allen KC · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Cyrus Allen KC · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
George Pickens DAL · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 70.1 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
George Pickens DAL · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 5.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
George Pickens DAL · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.3 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Jake Ferguson DAL · TE · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 20.6 · final 21.0 · played (box score)
Jake Ferguson DAL · TE · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 3.0 · final 2.0 · played (box score)
Jake Ferguson DAL · TE · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.4 · final 1.0 · played (box score)
Hunter Luepke DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 3.6 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Hunter Luepke DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Hunter Luepke DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 3.9 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Hunter Luepke DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 0.8 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Hunter Luepke DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Tyler Goodson DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 13.3 · final 77.0 · played (box score)
Tyler Goodson DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Tyler Goodson DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 3.6 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Tyler Goodson DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 0.7 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Tyler Goodson DAL · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 81.8 · final 86.0 · played (box score)
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 7.4 · final 8.0 · played (box score)
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.7 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing yards: original 1.1 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
DJ Herman MIA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
DJ Herman MIA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
DJ Herman MIA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 18.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
DJ Herman MIA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
DJ Herman MIA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Deshaun Watson CLE · QB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Passing yards: original 217.9 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Deshaun Watson CLE · QB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Passing TDs: original 0.9 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Deshaun Watson CLE · QB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing yards: original 25.1 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Deshaun Watson CLE · QB · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing TDs: original 0.1 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Michael Burton CLE · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 0.9 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Michael Burton CLE · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Michael Burton CLE · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Michael Burton CLE · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Michael Burton CLE · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Dylan Sampson CLE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 17.4 · final 21.0 · played (box score)
Dylan Sampson CLE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Dylan Sampson CLE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 31.9 · final 27.0 · played (box score)
Dylan Sampson CLE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 3.3 · final 3.0 · played (box score)
Dylan Sampson CLE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.1 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Patrick Ricard NYG · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 0.5 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Patrick Ricard NYG · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Patrick Ricard NYG · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 1.6 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Patrick Ricard NYG · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 0.4 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Patrick Ricard NYG · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Elijah Mitchell PHI · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 11.3 · final 6.0 · played (box score)
Elijah Mitchell PHI · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Elijah Mitchell PHI · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 6.5 · final 20.0 · played (box score)
Elijah Mitchell PHI · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.8 · final 3.0 · played (box score)
Elijah Mitchell PHI · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Konata Mumpfield LAR · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 18.0 · final 20.0 · played (box score)
Konata Mumpfield LAR · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.2 · final 2.0 · played (box score)
Konata Mumpfield LAR · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.1 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Tutu Atwell LAR · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 21.8 · final 16.0 · played (box score)
Tutu Atwell LAR · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.1 · final 2.0 · played (box score)
Tutu Atwell LAR · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Pat Bryant DEN · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 32.7 · final 56.0 · played (box score)
Pat Bryant DEN · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 2.4 · final 4.0 · played (box score)
Pat Bryant DEN · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.2 · final 1.0 · played (box score)
Pat Bryant DEN · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing yards: original 2.4 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Pat Bryant DEN · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Adam Prentice DEN · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 1.9 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Adam Prentice DEN · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Adam Prentice DEN · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 4.2 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Adam Prentice DEN · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 0.6 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Adam Prentice DEN · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Simi Fehoko ARI · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 17.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Simi Fehoko ARI · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Simi Fehoko ARI · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Brady Russell SEA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Brady Russell SEA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Brady Russell SEA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 10.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Brady Russell SEA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 0.8 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Brady Russell SEA · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Savion Williams GB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 19.6 · final 25.0 · played (box score)
Savion Williams GB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 2.0 · final 3.0 · played (box score)
Savion Williams GB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 1.0 · played (box score)
Savion Williams GB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 6.9 · final 13.0 · played (box score)
Savion Williams GB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Hunter Henry NE · TE · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 41.6 · final 35.0 · played (box score)
Hunter Henry NE · TE · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 3.6 · final 3.0 · played (box score)
Hunter Henry NE · TE · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.3 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Mack Hollins NE · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 47.9 · final 36.0 · played (box score)
Mack Hollins NE · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 3.6 · final 3.0 · played (box score)
Mack Hollins NE · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final 1.0 · played (box score)
Reggie Gilliam NE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 1.3 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Reggie Gilliam NE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Reggie Gilliam NE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 9.3 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Reggie Gilliam NE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Reggie Gilliam NE · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Connor Heyward LV · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 0.8 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Connor Heyward LV · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Connor Heyward LV · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 3.7 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Connor Heyward LV · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 0.4 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Connor Heyward LV · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Jack Bech LV · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 21.3 · final 9.0 · played (box score)
Jack Bech LV · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 2.1 · final 1.0 · played (box score)
Jack Bech LV · WR · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.3 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Demarcus Robinson SF · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 30.9 · final 22.0 · played (box score)
Demarcus Robinson SF · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 2.0 · final 3.0 · played (box score)
Demarcus Robinson SF · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.3 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Kyle Juszczyk SF · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original -0.1 · final 4.0 · played (box score)
Kyle Juszczyk SF · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Kyle Juszczyk SF · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 14.9 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Kyle Juszczyk SF · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 1.6 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Kyle Juszczyk SF · FB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.3 · final 0.0 · played · no attempts in this category (true 0)
Emeka Egbuka TB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving yards: original 43.8 · final 38.0 · played (box score)
Emeka Egbuka TB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receptions: original 4.4 · final 3.0 · played (box score)
Emeka Egbuka TB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Receiving TDs: original 0.3 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Emeka Egbuka TB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing yards: original 1.5 · final 1.0 · played (box score)
Emeka Egbuka TB · WR · Wk 9 · pregame QUESTIONABLE
Rushing TDs: original 0.1 · final 0.0 · played (box score)
Max Bredeson MIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing yards: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Max Bredeson MIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Rushing TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Max Bredeson MIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving yards: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Max Bredeson MIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receptions: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded
Max Bredeson MIN · RB · Wk 9 · pregame EXPECTED
Receiving TDs: original 0.0 · final — · no final box-score entry · DNP unverified, not graded

Coverage & grading

MAE is mean absolute error in each stat’s own units. Signed error = final − original. Tolerances are fixed display benchmarks, not betting confidence: passing ±50 yards; rushing/receiving ±20 yards; receptions ±2; each TD count ±1. Season results pool observations, not weekly averages.

Primary view: players with a pregame primary role from the saved snapshot only — no injury designation and recent stats, plus the team’s top projected QB, WRs with 3+ projected targets, the top TE, and RBs with 8+ projected opportunities and 20%+ of the backfield share. Saved snapshots hold no verified lineup feed, so this is a pregame projected role, not a confirmed starter. Everyone else is listed under the audit section and never pooled. Missing records and players absent from the final ESPN box score are ungraded, never assumed zero or confirmed DNP. A player who appears in the final box score but not in a stat category (e.g. no carries) is graded as a confirmed 0 and labeled so. Participation is box-score evidence only; no starter status is inferred from a projection. Explicit matched zeros are graded. In-game injuries cannot be separately identified from this feed. Different original model versions remain identified; no prediction is recalculated.

Only final games with a verified event ID, matching team and exact player crosswalk are graded. Saved capture must precede stored kickoff. No results are written back. Missing snapshots cannot be reconstructed. Future games count as ungraded coverage, not failures.

Over/under/equal compares final stats to PLPIQ’s own saved projection only. It is a hypothetical model-performance measure, not a sportsbook-line result; PLPIQ publishes no player sportsbook lines, and no wager outcome is labeled unless verified contemporaneous lines and pregame selections exist — none do today.

Final feeds are cached best-effort for one hour; schedules for five minutes. Missing feeds remain ungraded.