WSH@
NYGPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
WSH@NYG
NE@
DETPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
KC@
ATLPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
HOU@
CLEPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
MIN@
GBPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
JAX@
TENPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
MIA@
INDPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
CAR@
NOPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
BUF@
NYJPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
SEA@
LVPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
LAR@
ARIPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
SF@
DALPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
PIT@
CINPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
LAC@
BALPlayerPLPIQ projTD
- Starter data unavailable: PLPIQ projections exist, but no player met the saved pregame starter rule. Confirmation is checked again automatically.
How accurate is this? (backtest)
2026 Weeks 2-5 (63 games, 1,516 projected player-games). Calibration fitted on 2025 Weeks 2-18 only; 2026 was never used to tune it.
- Anytime TD Brier score 0.1209 vs 0.1328 for a flat league rate (lower is better).
- Actual first TD scorer was in the top 5: 27 of 60 games (45%).
- 94.5% of actual TD scorers were in the projected pool.
- Average miss: Pass yards 62.6, Rush yards 13.1, Receiving yards 18.8, Receptions 1.5.
| Predicted | Players | Avg predicted | Actually scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5% | 490 | 2.2% | 3.7% |
| 5-10% | 89 | 8.7% | 15.7% |
| 10-20% | 491 | 15.2% | 16.9% |
| 20-30% | 345 | 24% | 22.3% |
| 30-40% | 84 | 33.7% | 41.7% |
| 40%+ | 17 | 42.4% | 70.6% |
Expected depth-chart roles do not verify actual starters. Players without confirmed pregame starter evidence or available projected lines are omitted. Official inactive coverage remains incomplete. A ruled-out teammate's workload is not redistributed. The backtest above applies to original v1, not the corrected full-game estimates. Four weeks of testing do not establish betting profitability.
Feeds: Stored conditional full-game projections — captured within 30 minutes; see each game timestamp; Roster / expected depth / reported injuries — Official game-day inactive source unavailable; roster membership never confirms participation. nflverse injury report has no Week 10 rows for these teams yet. 401873052: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873053: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873058: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873056: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873060: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873057: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873059: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873055: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873054: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873062: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873061: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873063: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873064: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active. 401873065: no reviewed official game-day inactive publication; unavailable, not confirmed active..